REMARKABLE SOLAR ACTIVITY: There haven’t been any strong solar flares in days. Nevertheless, some impressiveactivity is underway on the sun. For one thing, an enormous wall of plasma is towering over the sun’s southeastern horizon. Stephen Ramsden of Atlanta,Georgia, took this picture on Nov. 11th:

“Solar forums all over the world are buzzing with Sun-stronomers proclaiming this to be the biggest prominence that many of them had ever witnessed,” he says.

Remarkably, though, this is not the biggest thing. A dark filament of magnetism is winding halfway around the entire sun: SDO image. From end to end, it stretches more than a million km or about three times the distance between Earth and the Moon. If the filament becomes unstable, as solar filaments are prone to do, it could collapse and hit the stellar surface below, triggering a Hyder flare. No one can say if the eruption of such a sprawling structure would be Earth directed.

“I cant help but wonder what could possibly come next since we are still over a year away from the forecasted Solar Maximum,” adds Ramsden. “There’s never been a better time to own a solar telescope than now!”

more images: from Alan Friedman of Buffalo, NY; from Theo Ramakers of Social Circle, GA; from John Stetson of Falmouth, Maine; from Randy Shivak of Elyria, OH; from Steve Riegel of Albuquerque, NM; from Robert Arnold of Ilse of Skye, Scotland

DISAPPEARING TRICK: If you’re a spy satellite, the ability to disappear could come in handy. US spysatLacrosse 5 occasionally performs just such a trick. On Nov. 11th, satellite watcher Dr. Marco Langbroek of Leiden, the Netherlands, caught the orbiting radar suddenly fading to near invisibility:

“Lacrosse 5 is typically bright but occasionally performs what is known among observers as the ‘disappearance trick,’” says Langbroek. “Its brightness suddenly drops 3 astronomonical magnitudes or more.”

Could this be a deliberate form of stealth? Langbroek doesn’t think so. “Maybe some part of the spacecraft such as its solar panels casts a shadow over the main body,” he speculates. “Or perhaps the surface of Lacrosse 5 becomes less reflective at certain viewing angles. This could happen as the craft suddenly changes attitude for some reason.” Other Lacrosse satellites do not perform the trick, at least not to this extent, suggesting that the design of Lacrosse 5 differs from its predecessors.

“Later in the movie a bright Soyuz rocket booster (81-008B) passes by as well,” he adds. “This is a piece of space debris connected to the 1981 launch of a Russian military satellite.”

It seems that this past year has been filled with all types of strange weather patterns all across the nation.Between droughts,flooding, tornadoes and rareearthquakes many located in regions not known for seismic activity for 50-150 years.This past week alone reports have been flowing in from worried residents throughoutOklahoma,Georgia,Tennessee,& Texas.The residents reported they heard loud booming sounds while the earth beneath them rattled around. Radar tracking captured birds or bugs fleeing on as the tremors occured.Are these tremors the result caused by seismic waves ? You ask what are seismic waves ?

Seismic waves are waves of energy that travel through the earth, and are a result of an earthquake, explosion, or a volcano that imparts low-frequency acoustic energy. Many other natural and anthropogenic sources create low amplitude waves commonly referred to as ambient vibrations. Seismic waves are studied by seismologists and geophysicists. Seismic wave fields are measured by a seismograph, geophone, hydrophone (in water), or accelerometer.

The propagation velocity of the waves depends on density and elasticity of the medium. Velocity tends to increase with depth, and ranges from approximately 2 to 8 km/s in the Earth’s crust up to 13 km/s in the deep mantle.

Earthquakes create various types of waves with different velocities; when reaching seismic observatories, their different travel time enables the scientists to locate the epicenter. In geophysics the refraction or reflection of seismic waves is used for research of the Earth’s interior, and artificial vibrations to investigate subsurface structures.

There are two types of seismic waves, body wave and surface waves. Other modes of wave propagation exist than those described in this article, but they are of comparatively minor importance for earth-borne waves, although they are important in the case of asteroseismology, especially helioseismologyy.

Forget everything you’ve heard about the world ending on Dec, 21, 2012. NASA is here to assure us that come Dec. 22, 2012, we will still be standing. In a post that appears on the space agency’s site, NASA dispelled several myths surrounding thedoomsday date.

“Given a legitimate need to protect Earth from the most intense forms of space weather -– great bursts of electromagnetic energy and particles that can sometimes stream from the sun -– some people worry that a gigantic ‘killer solar flare’ could hurl enough energy to destroy Earth,” the statement said.

“Citing the accurate fact that solar activity is currently ramping up in its standard 11-year cycle, there are those who believe that 2012 could be coincident with such a flare. But this same solar cycle has occurred over millennia. Anyone over the age of 11 has already lived through such a solar maximum with no harm. In addition, the next solar maximum is predicted to occur in late 2013 or early 2014, not 2012.”

NASA says there simply isn’t enough energy in the sun to “send a killer fireball 93 million miles to destroy Earth.”

The agency says the prediction that we’d be toast in 2012 started with claims that Nibiru, a supposed planet discovered by the Sumerians, is headed toward Earth.

“This catastrophe was initially predicted for May 2003, but when nothing happened the doomsday date was moved forward to December 2012. Then these two fables were linked to the end of one of the cycles in the ancient Mayan calendar at the winter solstice in 2012 — hence the predicted doomsday date of December 21, 2012.

“Nothing bad will happen to the Earth in 2012,” NASA says. “Our planet has been getting along just fine for more than 4 billion years, and credible scientists worldwide know of no threat associated with 2012.”

Seven quakes have rocked Caribbean islands as of Saturday and another tremor occurred in Haiti this Monday, raising concern among experts about a likely seismic reactivation in the area. “For some days we have observed an unusual activity that seems to be linked to the subduction of the Caribbean tectonic plate,” Saint Lucian seismologist Bruce Kleever told Prensa Latina. Seven tremors were felt in theBritish overseas territories in East Caribbean over the weekend, according to the Disaster Management Department of the Virgin Islands. “The seismic events were of 3.5-4.6 magnitude and could also be felt in Puerto Rico.

We’re following closely the situation in the area,” said Kleever. A 4.3-magnitude quake rocked southern Haiti early morning today, one year, ten months and two days after the worst seism in the history of this country occurred. No damages or fatalities have been reported so far, but the people panicked as they relived thenightmare. According to the expert, the tremor might indicate an area of seismic activity also in the northern Caribbean plate. For years, the specialists have feared the likelihood of powerful quakes and ensuingtsunamis in the Caribbean because of the existence in the area of important focuses of danger of tectonic movement. One of them is located near Dominica, considered the point with the largest number of potentially active volcanoes in the world. However, Kleever said panic must not be triggered among the population. “Just remain on alert and take steps in case of any tremor,” he said. Steps include going to open, safer spaces, mainly in highlands, far from buildings. The Caribbean currently lacks a tsunami early warning system. Such a device would be likely available by year 2014. Watch over the area is carried out from the Hawaii-basedTsunami Warning Center, in the Pacific. At least 88 tsunamis have occurred in the Caribbean in the past 500 years, the worst of them in 1946, killing some 1,600 people.

It’s hard to believe that only last week we were getting excited for Russia’s first interplanetary mission in 15 years to launch. By now, we should be happy in the knowledge that the ambitious — and awesome — mission is powering through space, toward the Martian moon Phobos.

The reality is that we are now discussinguncontrolled reentry scenarios.

As if that wasn’t enough bad news, we are looking at an uncontrolled toxic reentry scenario. Phobos-Grunt — correctly written “Fobos-Grunt,” meaning “Phobos-Soil” or “Phobos-Ground” — is fully-laden with unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide; that’s ten tons of fuel and oxidizer. The probe itself weighs-in at only three tons.

The majority of the fuel will likely vaporize during reentry, but everyone will be hoping for a splash-down in an ocean (which covers two-thirds of Earth, fortunately), as the wreckage will still be hazardous. There’s also a small quantity of radioactive cobalt-57 in one of the science missions housed in the probe — a fact that will most likely cause a media frenzy.

It is for these reasons that the Russian media is dubbing Phobos-Grunt “Most toxic falling satellite ever.“

(NOTE: At time of writing, there is no official word from the Russian space agency about the Phobos-Grunt situation.)

Though Russian mission controllers are frantically trying to regain control of the craft, it’s not looking good. Today’s efforts are widely regarded as a last-ditch attempt to salvage the mission. Other space agencies such as NASA and ESA have offered to assist, but it’s looking like the probe is quickly becoming unrecoverable.

“Last night there were several attempts to obtain telemetry information from the unit. All of them ended with a zero result. The probability of saving the (probe) is very, very small,” an anonymous industry source told Interfax (translated from Russian).

Since Phobos-Grunt was placed in low-Earth orbit (LEO) on Tuesday, and the probe successfully separated from its booster rocket, its attached cruise stage rocket has yet to light up, providing a critical two burns to blast the probe away from Earth to begin its planned 10-month journey to the Red Planet.

It is unknown whether there’s a software error or hardware glitch, but attempts to upload new commands to the on board computers have so far failed to change the situation. Phobos-Grunt’s batteries are draining and its orbit is degrading. It looks as if the probe will reenter later this month/early December. NORAD is putting a Nov. 26 reentry date on Phobos-Grunt.

And guess what? This will be the third large piece of space junk to reenter in an uncontrolled manner this year. In September, NASA’s 6-ton UARS atmospheric satellite burned-up over the Pacific. In October, theGerman 2.4-ton ROSAT X-ray space mission reentered over the Bay of Bengal. Could November be the third consecutive reentry month?

Like UARS and ROSAT, the likely Phobos-Grunt reentry will be uncontrolled and at the mercy of a highly dynamic upper atmosphere. Also, the probe’s orbit takes it between the latitudes 51.4 degrees North to 51.4 degrees South — most of the world’s population lives within that zone, and Phobos-Grunt could come downanywhere. Despite the fact that pieces of the probe will hit the ground, it is still extremely unlikely it will cause death and destruction, however.

The demise of Phobos-Grunt will be a huge loss to the scientific community. Not only was the mission designed to land and scoop-up some regolith (dust and rock) from Phobos’ surface, returning it to Earth for analysis, it is also carrying a fascinating Planetary Society experiment called the Living Interplanetary Flight Experiment, or “LIFE.”

LIFE is composed of many different types of bacteria to small organisms that seem to tolerate the space environment pretty well. Tardigrades — known as water bears — were also a part of the payload.

What was the point of sending microscopic organisms to a Martian moon?

In an effort to understand how life appeared on Earth, the experiment would have put the hypothesis of “panspermia” to the test. Panspermia is a proposed mechanism by with life may “hop” from one planetary body to the next — meteorites slamming into Mars, say, ejecting many tons of debris into space. Should any organisms be “hitching a ride” on the debris, could they (or at least their genetic information) survive the interplanetary journey, and atmospheric entry, to spawn life on another world?

Alas, the LIFE experiment has been cut short. The first Chinese Mars satellite, Yinghuo-1, was also hitching a ride and won’t go any further than LEO either.

So what now? As we await the inevitable reentry of Phobos-Grunt, it would appear the Russian authorities are looking for someone to blame after a string of mission failures. According to a (translated) Interfax bulletin, an anonymous (expert) source indicated this may force reform in the Russian space agency, Roscosmos. Also, “a number of positions of responsible persons” could face jail time.

Are earthquakes becoming more frequent and more powerful?  With only two months to go, we are on pace to have more earthquakes of magnitude-5.0 or greater this year than we have had during any other year over the past decade by far.  In fact, as you will see in this article, since the year 2000 there has been a very clear upward trend in the number of major earthquakes.  So is this an indication that major earth changes are coming?  Is our planet becoming increasingly unstable?  We are currently witnessing tremendous political, social and financial upheaval all over the globe.  Every week the economic crisis in the United States and elsewhere seems to get even worse.  So what is going to happen if the shaking of the earth becomes even more intense and major cities all over the planet start getting leveled?  For most of human history we have seriously underestimated the awesome destructive power of natural disasters, and the fact that the number of earthquakes around the world seems to be going up consistently should be a huge wake up call for all of us.

These days powerful earthquakes happen so frequently that most people hardly notice them anymore.

The other day Oklahoma experienced a magnitude-5.6 earthquake.  It was the largest earthquake that has ever been recorded in the state.  It was so powerful that it was felt in Illinois and in Tennessee.  There were more than 30 aftershocks.  But it barely made a blip in the news and after a couple days everyone had forgotten about it.

A magnitude-5.7 earthquake just struck eastern Turkey.  The vast majority of people will have forgotten about it by tomorrow.

So why don’t people care about these huge earthquakes?

Well, it is because they are just so incredibly common these days.

In 2001, there were 1361 earthquakes of magnitude-5.0 or greater around the globe.  This year, we are on pace to have nearly twice as many.

In 2011, we are on pace to have more than 2600 earthquakes of magnitude-5.0 or greater.

As you can see from the following chart from americandailyherald.com, the number of major earthquakes has been rising steadily over the past decade, and the 2600 major earthquakes that we are on pace to have this year is going to far surpass all of the previous years on this chart….

So what do most geologists say about this data?

Well, most of them continue to make the “politically correct” claim that the number of earthquakes is not really increasing.  Instead, they say that what is happening is that our ability to detect earthquakes has gotten better.

Of course that is a bunch of nonsense.  Our ability to detect major earthquakes has not doubled over the past ten years.

Let’s take a look at another chart.

This next chart comes from dlindquist.com, and it is a graph of the number of earthquakes magnitude-6.0 or greater that have occurred since 1973.  As you can see, the trend is clearly up….

If, as many geologists claim, the reason for the higher number of major earthquakes is our constantly improving ability to detect them, then why was the number of earthquakes magnitude-6.0 or greater fairly consistent between 1973 and 1999?

It has just been over the past ten years or so that major earthquakes have become much more frequent and much more powerful.

But it hasn’t just been earthquakes that have been increasing in frequency and intensity.

There have been more natural disasters that have caused more than a billion dollars in damage this year than in any other year in U.S. history.  The following short excerpt comes from a recent ABC News article….

Barack Obama has already declared more major disasters in less than three years than any other president has ever declared over an entire four year term.

So just what in the world is going on?

Is something going on that we should be alarmed about?

Well, nobody knows exactly what is going on, but clearly there has been an increase in seismic activity all over the globe.

Over the past few years, the “Ring of Fire” around the Pacific Ocean has become unusually active.  We have seen absolutely devastating earthquakes hit places such as Chile and New Zealand.  Earlier this year, Japan experienced the worst earthquake that it has ever seen and it produced a tsunami that was so devastating that it will never be forgotten.

The west coast of the United States also sits along the “Ring of Fire” and it is definitely overdue for a “killer earthquake”.

But that is not the only part of the country that should be concerned.

It is entirely possible that a massive earthquake could strike at any time along the New Madrid fault zone that would absolutely devastate major U.S. cities from Chicago all the way down to New Orleans.

It has happened before.

Back in 1811 and 1812 four mammoth earthquakes along the New Madrid fault shook the entire eastern half of the country.  These quakes opened up deep fissures in the ground, caused the Mississippi River to run backwards and they caused church bells to ring as far away as Boston.

So what would such an earthquake do today?

Well, one study by the University of Illinois found that a 7.7-magnitude earthquake along the New Madrid fault would leave 3,500 people dead, more than 80,000 injured and more than 7 million homeless.

So what would happen if a magnitude-8.7 earthquake struck?

Remember, an 8.7-magnitude earthquake would be ten times larger than a 7.7-magnitude earthquake.

That is something to think about.

We live in very unusual times.

It seems like everything that can be shaken is being shaken.

Let us hope that the earth calms down for a while and that the number of major earthquakes begins to stabilize again.

But there is no guarantee that is going to happen.

In fact, many believe that this is only just the beginning.

If you woke up in five days and there was no electricity, no internet, no cell phones, what would you do? As for me, I’ll answer that question at the end of this article. But why worry, it’s not going to happen. But it could and I’ll explain it briefly.

In five days, a large “benevolent monster” of a sunspot is turning to face the Earth. The most active part of the entire sun since 2005. And “it’s still growing,” according to Jess Whittington, a forecaster at the federal Space Weather Prediction Center. This “benevolent monster” of a sunspot will only be facing our planet for two weeks.

The consequences of this is dire, if you only understand what happens if this “benevolent monster” of a sunspot unleashes it’s full fury upon our small planet. Let’s go back in time to 1859.

From August 28 until September 2, 1859, the earth faced a similar scenario such as what is occurring in five days. On September 1, 1859, the largest flare came unleashed a coronal mass ejection straight at the Earth. And just 18 hours later, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm hit the Earth.

In Boston, the light was so bright that even at 1:00 AM, people could read the newspaper without any other light sources around them. The currents in long Telegraph wires in both theUnited States and Europe experienced induced ElectroMagnetic Force. Fires broke out in the telegraph offices and even shocked the telegraph operators. Auroras were seen inHawaii, Mexico, Cuba and Italy. This was the 1859 solar superstorm.

In five days, the electric grid to the United States could be virtually destroyed in the northern Half of the United States. With 130 million people without electricity for 4 to 10 years as 350 transformers are destroyed. The entire Alaska Pipeline could erupt into a fireball. All land line telephones could be destroyed.

So in five days, if a solar superstorm such as the one that hit the Earth in 1859 hits the Earth again, then I’ll calmly sit back and open my Bible and read it under the 1:00 AM lights.

Identifying the systems that would probably fail if there were a strong-enough EMP from either a massive solar CME, a nuclear EMP weapon, or a tactical EMP bomb, is easier to speculate than  items that might survive an EMP. There are some obvious items that would survive, but many are not that obvious.

An EMP, an ‘electro-magnetic-pulse’, is a side-effect of a nuclear explosion, a coronal mass ejection (from the Sun), or a purposed EMP bomb. An EMP is a near instantaneous and invisible ‘ZAP’ of electricity that surges through electrical wires and electrical semiconductor components. ‘IF’ the EMP is strong enoughand the electronic components are close enough to the source, then these components could fry. Once they are fried, that’s it… they’re done. Only physical replacements will bring the systems back up and running.

So, while attempting to discover what items will survive an EMP, we need to know what is INSIDE the item… namely, if there are any electronic semiconductors (transistors, IC ‘chips’, microprocessors, etc.). It is the microscopic semiconductor ‘junctions’ themselves that are vulnerable to melting due to an excess of electrical current being forced through the junction (from the EMP).

Also, an EMP will be carried through overhead power lines (at the speed of light) and could instantaneously overwhelm power transformers along the grid with excess electrical current, causing the windings of the transformers to melt into a molten blob. The power lines will also carry the EMP (at the speed of light) far and wide into homes and businesses in search of semiconductors to fry.

Here’s another thing to know… an EMP’s energy will decay the further away from the source that you get. Electronic circuits that are further away will be less vulnerable to the EMP. How far away? Well that depends (of course). It depends on the overall strength of the EMP, the altitude of the EMP, the ‘line-of-sight’ distance from the EMP, and any protection that the device might have to protect it from an EMP.

After all that, the simple answer to what items might survive, are those items that do not contain semiconductors!

The problem is, nearly all devices today contain semiconductors!

If the device you are wondering about contains any digital interface whatsoever, then you can probably kiss it good-bye. Often it may be difficult to even know if there are semiconductors in a device. Even if there is no digital interface, there could still very well be semiconductors or electronic circuits somewhere inside.

Since winter is coming on, let’s talk Heaters.

Electric heaters… Fogetaboutit. The grid will probably be down.

Oil heat… The burner’s ignitor transformers, electronic control circuits, and electronic controlled pumps will fry. Plus, with no electrical power, the pumps won’t function.

Natural gas heat… The utility gas pressure will probably remain for awhile, but electronic thermostats or gas valve controllers may fry. Some basic-style natural gas heaters, such as wall units, could be lit manually though – until the pressure runs out.

Portable heaters… Most self-fueled heaters without electronic controls will survive – until your fuel source runs out. If it plugs in, it’s toast.

Wood Stove heater… Ding Ding Ding… we have a winner!

Let’s talk cars.

As most of us know, any new car today is jam packed full of electronics. Forget it. It’s dead.

Any car made with electronic ignition and fuel injection will probably stop in it’s tracks. Cars have been being built with these features longer than you may think (~1980′s). Depending on the exact vehicle, you may be somewhat ‘safe’ with a car built in the early 1980′s, 1970′s or earlier. It would take some significant research to list the vehicles built without these electronic systems, but suffice it to say that most any vehicle today is vulnerable to EMP failure (if close enough to the EMP source).

Let’s talk ‘general’.

Generally speaking, ranging from tools, to appliances, to heaters, to vehicles… if it has electronic circuits, it is vulnerable to EMP. This basically leaves hand tools, hand operated or primitive appliances, wood stove heat, and old vehicles. We’re talking living like the 1800′s or earlier.

While the threat of an EMP to the degree of mass outages is apparently slim, the fact is that it is not zero. A huge portion of the world population today relies on electricity for survival. It has enabled great advancements in civilization. The lack thereof could enable great setbacks to civilization.

Be prepared.