Energy Crisis in Pakistan (Continued) …
Posted: December 8, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, Economic, Energy Crises in Pakistan, Solutions of Pakistan Crisis, Survey of Pakistan Leave a comment |
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1. Introduction :
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production. Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the supply of energy resources to an economy.
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:
Pakistan’s energy infrastructure is not well developed, rather it is considered to be underdeveloped and poorly managed. Currently the country is facing severe energy crisis. Despite of strong economic growth and rising energy demand during past decade, no serious efforts have been made to install new capacity of generation. Moreover, rapid demand growth, transmission losses due to outdated infrastructure, power theft, and seasonal reductions in the availability of hydropower have worsened the situation. Consequently, the demand exceeds supply and hence load-shedding is a common phenomenon through power shutdown.
2.1 Energy Supply:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of 0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
2.2 Energy Consumption:
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil 29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
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3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan:
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels): [Limited – Expensive]
Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas. These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal, petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
a). Petroleum products:
In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.
b). Natural Gas:
Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is 4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to stop deforestation in hilly areas.
c). Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of good quality.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb River (1,300 MW).
3.2 Renewable Resources : (Unlimited – sustainable – clean)
Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
a). Hydro power:
Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
Current Hydropower stations:
Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MWMangla 1,000 MWWarsak 240 MWChashma 184 MW
Potential Hydropower stations:
Diamer-Bhasha Dam 4500 MW
Munda Dam – Swat river in Mohamand Agency 740 MW
Kalabagh Dam 2400-3600 MW
Bunji Dam 5400 MW
Dasu Dam 3800 MW
3.3 Alternative Sources of Energy :
a). Wind:
Wind power harnesses the power of the wind to propel the blades of wind turbines. These turbines cause the rotation of magnets, which creates electricity. Though Pakistan has potentials of wind energy ranging from 10000 MW to 50000 MW, yet power generation through wind is in initial stages in Pakistan and currently 06 MW has been installed in first phase in Jhampir through a Turkish company and 50 MW will be installed shortly. More wind power plants will be built in Jhampir, Gharo, Keti Bandar and Bin Qasim Karachi.
b). Solar :
Solar power involves using solar cells to convert sunlight into electricity, using sunlight hitting solar thermal panels to convert sunlight to heat water or air. Pakistan has potential of more than 100,000 MW from solar energy. Building of solar power plants is underway in Kashmir, Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. However, private vendors are importing panels / solar water heaters for consumption in the market. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) is working for 20,000 solar water heaters in Gilgit Baltistan. Mobile companies have been asked by the government to shift supply of energy to their transmission towers from petroleum to solar energy panels.
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel :
Biomass production involves using garbage or other renewable resources such as sugarcane, corn or other vegetation to generate electricity. When garbage decomposes, methane is produced and captured in pipes and later burned to produce electricity. Vegetation and wood can be burned directly to generate energy, like fossil fuels, or processed to form alcohols. Brazil has one of the largest renewable energy programs from biomass/biodiesel in the world, followed by USA. Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) of Pakistan has planned to generate 10 MW of electricity from municipal waste in Karachi followed by similar projects in twenty cities of country.
d). Tidal:
Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable, and sustainable energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has been made so far.
3.4 Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238, controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) – Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
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4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistan’s energy crisis traces its roots to following distinct causes :
- Growing Energy Demand
; over the years there is greater need of energy because of;
• increase in population,
• enhancement in lifestyle• industrial and agricultural growth• greater transportation needs
- Lack of proactive and integrated planning for production of energy:
Pakistan has had wider potentials to tap energy, however, due to lack of any integrated/proactive planning, very less number of power producing plant were installed to meet futuristic demands. Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and supply drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500 MW.
- Imbalanced energy energy mix
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % – majority of which is imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
A rational energy mix planning ought to be developed giving greater dependency to renewable (hydel power), indigenous (coal) and alternative energy resources (wind and solar energy). Nuclear energy can
- Non-utilization of enormous indigenous energy resources:
o Thar Coal: Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175 billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer production. Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and economic prosperity to many families.
o Hydal power generation :
Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only 6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.
Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400 MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity. Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
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5. Consequences of Energy Crisis :
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed to shortfalls in energy supply.
ii). Agriculture Sector: Agricultural productivity of Pakistan is decreasing due to provision of energy for running tube wells, agricultural machinery and production of fertilizers and pesticides. Thus higher energy means higher agricultural productivity.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial units are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards unemployment.
v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking, heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the people and results in agitation against the government.
vi). Poverty: Declination in economic growth, lower agricultural productivity, unemployment and shackling industrial growth result in increasing poverty. Currently, around forty percent of our population is living beyond poverty line and this ratio is increasing day by day. Ample control of energy crisis will surely yield in curbing the menace of poverty.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, moreorless, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the country.
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Self-sufficiency in energy is the assurance to excel any country’s economy. According to an international analysis, the oil and gas reserves will be finished into the second half of this current century. For that reason, to attain self-sufficiency, alternative energy resources are being explored. There are 929 billion tons approx. coal reserves available in the world whose 40% is used to produce the electricity. As per an estimation, third biggest coal reserve of 185 billion ton exists in Pakistan which is equivalent to 400 billion barrels of oil. In other words, our coal reserves are equivalent to Saudi Arab and Iran’s combined oil reserves.
As per research, $50 per barrel price gives the value of our coal reserve as high as $30 trillion which goes to 187 times high as compared to current GDP of Pakistan. Current government has taken appropriate actions to produce the electricity from Thar coal and other resources during the three to five coming years. Recently, Sindh Government has contracted with a multi-national firm and work has been started to produce the 1000 mega watt electricity from the coal.
These power generating projects will save huge foreign currency which is spent on the import of oil. The second largest oil producing country Iran too is producing electricity from coal. China, in this time is producing 75% electricity with coal and is ready to help us produce electricity with coal. The strong lobby of multi-national oil companies didn’t let the plans of generating the electricity from wind and coal come into being.
In world level, the share of electric produced by the gas is 19% while in Pakistan 45%, nuclear energy’s share in world total energy is 16% while in Pakistan only 2%, hydro-generated electricity’s share into the world’s total energy share is 16% but in Pakistan 3.3% and from oil in world only 7% but in Pakistan is 16%. Poland and Germany produce the electricity more than 80% from coal. Likewise, South Africa 93%, India 78.3%, Australia 77%, China 72%, Germany 52%, America 49%, Denmark 47.3% and UK 32.9% produce the energy from coal. Pakistan produces only 200 mega watt from coal which is 7% of total energy production while the energy produced by coal should be up to 25%.
An important and natural resource of alternative energy is wind. Minimum 13 kilometer per hour wind blowing is supposed to be sufficient. By luck, we have the points for the production of wind energy which is available into the coastal areas of Karachi, Thatta, Jiwani and Baluchistan’s coastal belt and other areas situated into northern areas and Azad Kashmir. This time from wind Germany 18000 mega watt, USA 7000 mega watt, and Spain 8000 mega watt are producing the energy.
Wind energy is of importance as it does not create any environmental pollution at all. Solar energy is one of the cheapest and important way to produce the energy. As per scientists, the energy received from the sun in one hour is more than the whole world’s total produced energy in a year. As per analysis if only half percent of desert land is used for solar energy it would cater the energy demand for this entire world. Pakistan has much potential for solar energy because Pakistan is receiving 19 mega joules per square meter in a year through which 90% of rural area can be provided the electricity.
Like wise, geysers run by solar energy can reduce the demand of natural gas in the northern areas. Nuclear energy is also a cheap resource to attain the electricity. We are producing only 462 mega watt electricity from nuclear resources which is only 2% of our energy production by alternative resources. In the contrary, in the world 16% electricity is being produced by nuclear energy. Our natural gas reserves are finishing rapidly so therefore, it is necessary that electricity be produced by alternative resources and dependency over the natural gas could be lessened. If just 50% of alternative resources available in Pakistan is used so we can export the additional energy to neighbor states. No doubt self-sufficiency in energy is the first key in attaining the country-wide economical and social development.
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The power crisis is getting worse and various short-term solutions being offered are not the answer. Wapda’s chairman’s assessment that the power shortage will last until 2018 is optimistic when the increase in demand over the next seven years is factored in.
The power shortage is harmful to the country’s economy and it is pulling down Pakistan’s GDP growth. The funds spent on import of power generators and their fuel is an enormous drain on the economy. Larger industries can afford power generators, but small/medium enterprise, which are any nation’s primary growth engine, cannot. We need a solution to take care of Pakistan’s power requirements for the next 20 years. Expensive import-based, oil-run power generation is not the answer. These have already increased Pakistan’s fuel import bill. Gas based projects are also not the answer as the country’s gas supply is limited.
A possible home-grown, energy solution, based on wind and solar energy, can be used. Many countries in the world have implemented alternative energy programmes. Spain is already producing 73 per cent of its power needs from wind and solar energy. Though technology is still evolving for solar energy, a more immediate solution is wind energy. The Karachi to Gwadar coastline has enormous potential for generating wind energy. Wind towers can generate between 7,000 to 10,000 MW of electricity. There will be certain challenges to accomplish this, but all the solutions are within Pakistan’s grasp and we need not depend on foreign assistance.
The main challenges are production and availability of wind turbines, safety and security of turbines, transmission lines to feed the national grid, capital cost of the project and long-term maintainability of the project. India has started producing wind turbines domestically. It is not rocket science and Pakistani scientists can master this technology if mandated by the government. If our scientists can produce a nuclear weapon, they can produce wind turbines. The Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission should be entrusted to design and build these turbines. The facilities at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, Kamra, Heavy Mechanical Complex and Karachi Shipyard can also be used. Once domestic needs are met, Pakistan could become a major exporter of wind turbines.
The solution for safeguarding wind turbines is to offer free electricity to those villages in Balochistan where wind turbines are installed. In return, villagers should be asked to ensure the safety of these turbines. The power consumption of these villages is likely to be minimal and this could also pacify the Baloch populace. Internationally, a five MW wind turbine costs around five million dollars. Pakistan should be able to produce these considerably cheaply, possibly at less than one million dollars. Wind turbines usually have a long life and as long as rotating parts are changed upon reaching their maximum life, wind turbines can last 50 years. Also, as wind turbines require no fuel, there is no running cost other than maintenance cost. With low initial and minimal running costs, electricity can be procured at a considerably lower price, avoiding the need to increase power rates frequently.
If Pakistan is to develop at a faster pace to attain a seven to eight per cent GDP growth, then it is imperative to address its energy needs. Pakistan is currently short by between 3,000 to 5,000 MW and if a major plan of action is not put into place now, the shortage is likely to be around 20,000 MW within 10 years. Wind energy is a fast and cheap solution. This programme should be given the same priority as Pakistan’s nuclear programme was once accorded.
Pakistan is in the grip of a serious energy crisis that is affecting all sectors of the economy and the various segments of the society. As the situation stands to-day, there are hardly any immediate solutions to resolve the issue. A change of attitude and a change of life style is needed at the national level which should be triggered by the ruling elite and followed by all segments of the society that have access to electricity. At best there could be some short and long-term solutions to the crisis but they need immediate planning and execution with an enormous investment.
Two key elements of a possible solution are: change of attitude and change in lifestyles.
The current energy consumption trends in Pakistan are extremely inefficient, whether it be in the domestic, industrial, trade or commercial sectors. With minimal effort, well over ten per cent of national electricity can be saved by applying only the first level of energy conservation that is a change in attitude. It is simple, instant and effective and all it requires is a stop to using energy unnecessarily.
Leaving lights and home appliances on even when they are not being used is a common practice in our society. Similarly, many businesses such as shops dealing in cloth and garments, jewellery, cosmetics, home appliances and electronics are usually extravagantly lit. It is commonly observed that shops that could do with two or three 40-watt tube lights to meet the desired level of luminance use as many as 15 to 20 tubes. Not only does this increase power consumption, it also generates heat and makes the environment uncomfortable.
A further economy of 10-15 per cent can be achieved by introducing the second level of energy-conservation practices, especially in industry. Collectively, just through public education. With the help of effective electronic and print media campaigns the government can quickly educate the masses.
The second part of the solution is a change in lifestyles. The nation has to draw a clear line between necessities (lighting, fans, TVs, computers, etc) and luxuries (air conditioners, microwaves, etc). There is not enough electricity to meet both requirements.
We should utilize daylight as possible, and our government has already taken steps about it. An early start and early end is recommended rather than having opening hours from afternoon until late at night. Air-conditioning, usually a sign of a luxurious lifestyle, needs to be ped. Bearing in mind that a typical domestic AC consumes far more electricity in one hour than a fan does over 24 hours, air conditioning should not be allowed except for sensitive applications such as hospitals and research centers.
The ruling class should lead by example in matters of power conservation. If it does so the common man will follow suit. It is time for the elite to take energy-saving initiatives like abandoning the use of central air conditioning, travelling by special flights and irrelevant use of official transport.
If implemented they can not only avoid the collapse of a bankrupt energy infrastructure but also ensure progress. The bottom line is, in order to safely get through the current energy crisis the nation has to differentiate between its necessities and its luxuries.
Pakistan is rich in hydro resources of energy. According to an estimate the country has enough resources to generate approximately 40000 mw of hydro-electricity. However, presently it only generates 8000 mw of electricity against an installed capacity of 11327 mw. In addition the country can generate electricity with the help of wind and solar energy which has not yet been exploited to meet the energy deficit. Nuclear energy is yet another source of energy and at present PAEC produces 472 mw. It is far less than what PAEC should have been producing to meet the energy deficit.
Thermal power is mostly produced by burning either natural gas or imported oil. The country is yet to switch over to coal from the indigenous source of energy that is estimated to be the third largest in the world with a reserve of 33.0 trillion tons.
If load shedding is still unavoidable despite all these measures, WAPDA/KESC should organize the cuts in a sensible way to cause minimum discomfort. Load shedding schedules should be properly planned and announced.
The reasons behind energy crisis are poor management, lopsided priorities and lack of accountability on part of those who stay at the helm of affairs. We must try our best to adopt energy conservation as individual and at national level.
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7. Recomendations/Solutions of Energy Crisis :
Energy crisis can be curtailed by :
i). Reducing unnecessary energy use:o Usage of electricity saving devices
o Awareness campaign for energy savingo Reduction in unnecessary transportations by developing good public transport systems and strengthening Pakistan railwayso Reduction in industrial uses with installation of effective equipment/ energy efficient and with increasing efficiency of workforce (cost effective)o Decreasing reliance on rental power projects, because instead of doing any good, they are increasing prices of electricity.o Decreasing line losses by using efficient power transmission cables
ii). Developing new energy resources :
o Tapping indigenous resources (Thar coal)
o Using renewable resources (water) by constructing new dams and hydro power plantso Import of natural gas by IPI (Iran Pakistan India) and TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India) pipelineso Import of electricity from Tajikistan -through Pak Afghan Tajikistan transmission- and Iran (approximately 1000 MW from each of them) pipelines
o Utilizing alternative energy resources :
Wind power
Biodiesel /Biomass Solar Tidal
o Enhancing civilian nuclear capacity
8. References :
- Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
- Fact File : Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)
- Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan, Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad
- CSS Forum – CSS Examination Preparation & Civil Service of Pakistan
- Wikipedia
- energy crisis: what can we do?
- How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends
Pakistan’s Energy Crisis and U.S. Interests
On 7 October 2001, the opening phase of “Operation Enduring Freedom” U.S. military campaign began, which quickly drove the Taliban and its al-Qaida affiliates from Kabul on 12 November.
Since then, 1,760 U.S. troops have been killed in Afghanistan along with 942 International Security Assistance Force soldiers, a total of 2,702 foreign military dead, with no end in sight.
In a March 2008 article Richard Holbrooke, then a foreign policy adviser in Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, coined the term “Af-Pak” in an article to describe the broader regional context of military operations in Afghanistan, acknowledging that in order to win in Afghanistan, Pakistan to the east must be pacified as well.
Holbrooke’s neologism was a belated acknowledgement that U.S. military operations had in fact begun across the Durand Line, the Afghan-Pakistan border in 2004, which Pashtuns on both side of the border have regarded as an artificial construct since its unilateral declaration by British authorities in India in 1893. In 2004 the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency’s Special Activities Division undertook the attacks on targets in northwest Pakistan using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) drones, primarily in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along northwest Pakistan’s Afghan border.
Carried out with the connivance of Pakistani President Asif Zadari, the UAV attacks have intensified, greatly increasing anger throughout FATA.
Now however, there are faint glimmers of new thinking in Washington that two new weapons for the “hearts and minds” of Pakistanis may have appeared – the light bulb, and potable water.
If all goes well, then the U.S. government is to sign off on providing Islamabad with $1 billion to complete its Diamer-Bhasha dam, with the offer reportedly being finalized during the upcoming Pakistan-U.S. strategic dialogue on energy later this month. If approved, the project will be the U.S. government’s largest foreign aid project to Pakistan.
The Diamer-Bhasha dam straddles the Indus River in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region of occupied Kashmir. The Diamer-Bhasha dam when complete would both produce 4,500 megawatts of electricity as well as store 8.5 million acre feet of water that Pakistan could use for irrigation and drinking.
What is most extraordinary about Washington’s purported efforts is not only that it is willing to delve into the Pakistani energy cesspool, but it is willing to do so in an area that has been contested by Pakistan and India since 1947, the major source of Muslim guerrilla insurgency for the last 64 years.
Apparently there are elements in Washington’s bureaucracy realizing that Pakistan’s population’s increased access to reliable electricity and water sources are in fact useful corollaries to UAV strikes in wining “hearts and minds.”
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It is not as if Pakistan’s energy woes are new – since 2006 Pakistani energy analysts have warned of an impending energy crisis. Pakistan’s government has implemented rolling blackouts across the country and earlier this year government officials announced that it will take at least seven years to build up electrical generation capacity to support the entire country. The black outs have taken a huge economic toll on Pakistan’s textile industry and have resulted in plant shutdowns and layoffs.
Any U.S. aid will doubtless have a fair percentage of its money “diverted” – President Zadari, when merely Prime Minister Bennazir Bhutto’s husband, was known as “Mr. Ten Percent’ for his alleged take on foreign projects.
That said, the issue remains one of “hearts and minds,” as the U.S., according to Holbrooke’s comments, now increasingly view the “Ak-Pak” theater of military operations as a unified one.
So, what can Islamabad offer its disaffected population to support the central authorities?
Electricity and access to water could go a long way towards convincing incipient jihadis that their government does indeed care, and that supporting it as opposed to tacking it could produce further benefits.
Consider – the Obama administration for fiscal year 2012 is requesting $120 billion for military operations in Afghanistan, a figure which pales into insignificance alongside the modest $1 billion allocated to complete Pakistan’s Diamer-Bhasha dam.
While doubtless a significant amount of this aid will disappear down Pakistani corruption ratholes (surprise), it would still seem on balance a bargain in every sense of the word, as jihadis could stay at home, read to their children after dark and cook their dinners, and electricity and water would seem to be more amenable elements in winning Pakistani “hearts and minds” than further Predator UAV strikes.
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Something to think about…
Crises in Pakistan: Electricity, Flour, Sugar, Water, Sui Gas Crises – What is the way out?
Posted: December 8, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, Crises in Pakistan, Electricity, Flour, Sugar, Sui Gas Crises, Water Leave a comment
Everyone these days seems to be talking about the elections, the tragic death of Benazir Bhutto and its impact on federation of Pakistan, the ever high anti Pakistan and anti Army sentiment in Sindh, Balochistan and FATA. The ordinary Pakistanis, middle and lower class in particular, are faced with a long list of other serious crises (making their daily lives a misery) which, unfortunately, have got very little attention. Latest in the list are the Power crisis/Load-shedding, water, Sui Gas and Flour or Wheat crisis.
The Power crisis or Load-shedding has been so severe since last 2 weeks or so that here in Lahore, we feel like living in caveman’s era. After every 30 minutes electricity goes off and we have to sit in the candle lights (except for the 5% who have generators:)) and wander around in the darkness. There are many areas of old city which are often without any electricity, gas or water for entire day in this extremely cold weather.
There have been difficult situations since the creation of Pakistan but I don’t think ever before so many crises have hit us in such quick succession. During last two years, particularly, we have seen nothing but crises, one after the other, and not a single one handled properly by government. It wouldn’t be wrong if we remember 2007 as a Year of Crises for Pakistan. On most occasions, authorities could have controlled situation by strict administration and better management. The inability to act and indifferent among the top government officials on these serious issues is astonishing, especially when elections are just around the corner. How can Q-league candidates even think of coming to people and ask for votes considering the terrible situation after their 5 years rule? Or may be enough votes have already been managed . Everybody seems to be interested in power game and political survival and there is no plan of action to handle the very basic problems. Nobody is coming forward from government authorities, explaining the cause of, for example the flour crisis, and informing public on the actions being taken to improve the situation.
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The year 2008 has brought several gifts for Pakistanis including the Bijli, Paani, Sui Gas and Aata Buhraan (power, water, natural gas and flour crises). Yes water too because not many people understand the connection between water supply with the availability of electricity in Pakistan. The tube-wells which supply water to most cities are run by electricity. I remember about 2-3 years ago, when there used to be criticism on Muslim League (Q) Government that all decisions are made somewhere else and they just say Yes Boss (dummies). Mr. Musharraf gave an interview on Geo and highlighted the point that he doesn’t interfere at all in government operations and the only things he looks after is the war against terrorism and the future power needs of Pakistan. I am sure many of you remember the presentations and news clip fromaiwan-e-sadr (Presidential Palace) which used to appear on news channels daily and then the press briefings with claims of new dams (including Kala Bagh dam) to be built and a plan has been made to fulfill Pakistan’s power needs for next 20 years. So, what happened to our tax money that has been wasted on funky presentations and planning and no actions and results?
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Well, the result is that after last year’s nightmare situation in Karachi and some other parts of the country, now there is a serious Power Crisis in the ENTIRE country. Here in Lahore, we are facing load-shedding up to 7-8 hours a day in urban areas (that is in Lahore) and things are not improving. Initially the load-shedding was for 30 minutes after every 2 hours but since last week, they do it after every 1 hour during the day time and every 30 minutes after 5 PM (for 30 minutes mostly and 1 hour in between). The most irritating part of this load-shedding is that NO schedule whatsoever has been published for people to know and try to manage things in a better way. I was watching Geo and they were showing reports of rural areas of entire country where they are getting electricity for only 2-4 hours a day. Every indication of things getting even worse in January/February. Well, welcome to 2008.
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Daily Times filed this report on load-shedding:
The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) has decided to increase the timing of load shedding with a seven-hour shutdown on regular basis from Tuesday (today), officials told Daily Times on Monday.The officials said that the authority was facing a shortfall of around 3,000 megawatts and that it had decided to increase the load shedding in rural and urban areas. Pakistan requires around 11,000 megawatts per day, while the per day availability is around 8,000 megawatts.The officials said that the shortfall might increase to 5,000 megawatts during the upcoming summer, adding that the power deficit was likely to decrease during the start of 2009 because various new power generation projects would be started.“It has been decided that WAPDA will do five to seven hours of load shedding per day in the rural areas, while four to six hours of load shedding will be done in cities,†the officials added.The Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) has asked all distribution companies to increase the load shedding hours to overcome the shortfall. The closure of canals, release of less water by the Irrigation Department and the suspension of gas supply to power generating plants caused the power shortfall, PEPCO Managing Director Munawar Baseer Ahmed said, adding that the load shedding might increase in the coming days if WAPDA did not get gas or water to generate power.Meanwhile, a cabinet meeting decided on Monday decided that any load shedding interval would not last longer than half-an-hour, Irfan Ghauri adds from Islamabad.
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Geo has this report on Flour Crisis:
The flour crisis has intensified as people facing hardships to buy the essential food item on increased price. In Karachi wheat flour, ghee and edible oil have not been available at most of the utility stores. The flour if available at a utility store being sold at Rs.155 ten kilogram instead of the official rate of Rs. 130/-Long queues of the people can be seen outside the utility stores in the city for flour, ghee and edible oil. The 10-kilogram bag of wheat flour being sold at 155 rupees instead of the official rate of Rs. 130/- at utility stores in the city. The other shops are selling the 10-KG bag of flour at Rs 280/-The flour price in Zhob, Mastung, Loralai and other parts of Balochistan has hiked, while the food item is unavailable at utility stores in Quetta and other cities of the province. The chief minister of Balochistan has issued directives to the concerned officials for action against hoarders and called report on the issue within two days. According to the provincial secretary food Azam Baloch, 20-KG bag of flour being sold at Rs. 278, at 130 Fear Price Shops in Quetta and at various sale points arranged by the flour mills.In Peshawar wheat flour is available only at few shops and being sold at Rs. 500 per 20-KG bag. According to the shopkeepers the flour supplies from the mills have decreased. The crowds of people can be witnessed at the utility stores but a spokesman of Utility Stores Corporation has said the stores could not meet the rising demand of the flour.According to the NWFP Flour Mills Association the crisis was the result of dwindling supplies of wheat and flour from Punjab.
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I started to recall the number of crises that we have seen under Musharraf’s regime and the list is really long. I wonder when he leaves office (surely he will leave or forced to leave someday soon), how people will remember him (if they do) and his X years in power. A dictator who gave Pakistan more crises than anyone in history? Here is what I could think of in just 5 minutes:
- Steel Mill
- Stock Exchange
- Law & Order
- Extremism
- Sugar
- Flour
- Electricity and Power
- Crisis of federation of Pakistan
- Political turmoil
- Credibility of state institutions
- Credibility of Armed Forces
- Lal Masjid
- The missing people
- The judicial crisis
- Freedom of speech and media crisis
Readers are most welcome to add to the list.
We are also hearing the news of upcoming Rice Crisis which is expected very soon. Beware all you rice lovers. I just don’t know what is the way out for ordinary citizens of Pakistan? Where is the impact of that economic prosperity and progress? People need things like food, energy, shelter, education, health and security to survive not the mobile phones and leased/financed motorcycles and cars. We have been hearing tall claims during last 5-6 years and I think we have a right to ask questions that where are the results? Whatever it is, some well known people have sure made a LOT of money during that time.
When I look at the current situation of Pakistan, it seems like aMasailistaan. As an optimist, I like to believe that things would be better in future. But just how, that I do not know. Somehow as a nation, we have to figure that out and quickly. Rigged or not so rigged elections may take place next month but how it would bring any positive change in ordinary person’s life remains to be seen. I would like to end this post with Ahmed Faraz’s kalaam which ends on a positive note.
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Pakistan Crisis – Seven Problem, Seven Solutions …
Posted: December 8, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, crisis, Pakistan Crisis, Seven Problem, Seven Solutions Leave a comment |
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Pakistan is experiencing a major existential crisis. But crises are mixed blessings which can lead to regression or progression. They can cause a breakdown or become a fertile ground for a breakthrough.
Pakistan is experiencing a major existential crisis. But crises are mixed blessings which can lead to regression or progression. They can cause a breakdown or become a fertile ground for a breakthrough. Some Pakistanis are worried that Pakistan, like Iraq, is heading towards a civil war where thousands of innocent men, women and children will be killed because of the violent confrontation between different ethnic and religious groups. It is so sad that, even in the 21st century, millions of innocent Pakistanis are caught between religious fundamentalism and Western imperialism while the Pakistani military and government are unable to provide safety and security to their citizens. Since September 11, 2001, Pakistanis have been pushed into international religious, economic and political wars. In the eyes of many foreign powers Pakistan, a nuclear power, has become a ticking time bomb, ready to explode at any time.
Pakistan has taken the centre stage in world politics not only because of its geographical position but also its historical love/hate relationship with the four other nuclear powers in the world – India, Israel, England and America. Pakistan is experiencing a major political crisis.
Many Pakistanis are concerned that over the next few years their mother land might again be divided into religious and secular states similar to the events in 1971, when East Pakistan became Bangladesh. “Can Pakistan survive?” has become once more, a million dollar question, as maintaining independence this time might be as difficult, if not more difficult, than gaining it half a century ago. Abul Kalam Azad had predicted in 1947 that if Pakistan separated from India on religious basis, it would further divide fifty years after its birth. It is ironic that Pakistanis, as a nation, even today, have not been able to find satisfactory solutions to the following problems.
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1. SOCIOECONOMIC PROBLEMS
Even after decades of existence there is no equal distribution of wealth and resources. Pakistan remains a feudal society where 90% of its wealth is owned by 10% of people. Industrialization has suffered because of the unpredictable economy and politics. None of the governments, military or civil, had any effective plan of action to decrease the gap between the rich and the poor. Military not only uses most of the national budget, but many army officers have been running many civilian organizations. Those Pakistanis who went to work in the Middle East in 1970s and 80s, and brought back foreign currency, have also created an economic imbalance and uneven social growth in the country.
2. EDUCATIONAL PROBLEMS
Rather than increasing, in the last sixty years, the literacy rate has decreased as the schools have not kept up with the population explosion. Sadly, most people in the villages cannot read or write. There is no national standardized educational system. Because of the large number of children, many poor parents, who do not practice family planning, send their children to madrassas, religious schools, as they get free food and shelter in those institutions. It is ironic that many of these madrassas are funded by Saudi Arabia to promote their fundamentalist interpretation of Islam and literal interpretation of Quran. For children to accept blind faith rather than learn critical and creative thinking can be a serious concern for any nation.
Pakistan is the only country I know where many children do not get their primary education in their native language. Rather than studying in Punjabi, Pushto, Balochi and Sindhi, many children are taught in Urdu, English and Arabic which are not their mother tongues.
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3. HEALTH CARE PROBLEMS
While many Pakistanis suffer from physical and emotional problems, there is no adequate health care system in place. Many pregnant women remain anemic and there is a high infant mortality rate. Children still suffer from malnutrition because of pervasive poverty. Many patients with emotional problems only see a psychiatrist when they get violent and have a nervous breakdown. Mental illness is still surrounded by visible stigma. Because of lack of health education there is less emphasis on prevention. When I was working in Zanana Hospital in Peshawar I met many infertile couples who went to holy shrines rather than consulting infertility clinics.
4. RELIGIOUS PROBLEMS
Because of religious teachings in the families, schools and
communities, many Pakistanis have grown with a religious rather than a secular world view. This trend intensified when Pakistan transformed into Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Ironically in Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s time Ahmedis were declared non-Muslims. The process of Islamization of Pakistan accelerated during Zia-ul-Haq period when religion was introduced to all aspects of life. The more religion entered politics and the separation of mosque and state became blurred, the more Pakistan traveled on the path of becoming a theocratic state.
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5. IDENTITY PROBLEMS
There was a time when some of my Pukhtoon friends used to say that they have been Pathans for 5000 years, Muslims for 1500 years and Pakistanis for 50 years, but the identity of Pakistanis has changed over the decades. There are many Pakistanis who identify with Arab and Muslim culture far more than their own ethnic and native culture. Their names are Arabic and they greet now with “Allah Hafiz” rather than “Khuda Hafiz”. They know more about Mohammad of Arabia than Buddha, Bullay Shaha and Guru Nanak of India. Many Pakistanis do not realize that the land and culture of Mohenjo Daro and Harappa existed far before 1947, when Pakistan was born. The issue of identity for many Pakistanis is still a major unresolved issue.
6. POLITICAL PROBLEMS
It is unfortunate that after all these years an autocratic political system prevails in Pakistan. People are more familiar with army generals and dictators than democratic minded political leaders. Democracy has not thrived in Pakistan since many religious leaders consider it a Western and un-Islamic system. Social, political and religious intolerance has increased over the decades. It is also sad that popular political leaders like Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto did not die natural deaths, one was hanged and the other assassinated. Many Muslims still dream of a Khilafat where one religious leader will be the life long leader. In 1500 years of history Muslims have not developed any unique political system that can be considered democratic. There are many Muslims who dream of converting others by preaching their brand of religion and there are others who support holy wars.
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7. HUMAN RIGHTS PROBLEMS
Pakistanis have suffered for decades because their human rights have not been protected in the communities as well the courts. Whether they are women or children, Ahmedis or Christians, Shiites or atheists, the rights of minorities are always threatened. The Pakistani Constitution does not ensure equal rights and privileges to all citizens. Pakistan still struggles between the secular British and religious Arabic laws and traditions. Pakistan has not resolved political conflicts between different provinces.
FUTURE OF PAKISTAN
In the next few years Pakistanis need to make many significant choices otherwise international powers might dictate certain decisions as they see Pakistan as a failed state that exports “terrorists” and having nuclear weapons, has become a threat to world peace. If the British Empire can lose her colonies, the Berlin wall can come down and the Communist World can disintegrate, Pakistan can also divide further and the map of the Middle East can change in the next decade.
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POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS
While I am discussing the unresolved problems of Pakistan, I am also reflecting upon the possible solutions. In this introductory article I can only enlist the solutions as each of them is deserving of a detailed discussion. For Pakistanis to make sure that Pakistan not only survives but also grows and thrives and joins the modern world by becoming a progressive and democratic state, they need to take following steps:
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1. The gap between the rich and the poor has to decrease.
2. The curriculum of schools need to be reviewed so that children can receive scientific and secular education in their mother tongue. In addition, they need to develop critical and creative thinking.
3. Health care education and free health care needs to be provided to all citizens.
4. The Pakistani Constitution has to become secular and humanistic so that all citizens, especially women and minorities have equal rights and the blasphemy law is abolished.
5. Pakistanis need to become aware of their own cultural traditions and Asian identity rather than primarily identifying with a Middle Eastern identity.
6. All political parties need to present their 5 to 10 year plan to deal with serious economic, religious and social problems so that people know which party will serve them the best.
7. All political parties and citizens need to make sure that army officers stay in the army barracks and not take over the parliament in the future.
For some people it might seem like a dream but all nations have to dream before the dream comes true. If Pakistanis did not fulfill that dream, I am afraid their dream might turn into a violent nightmare in the not so distant future.
US & NATO attacks on Pakistan I Episode 01| The Vision Media Presentation…
Posted: November 30, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, Pakistan, Syed Haroon Haider Gilani, The Vision Media, The Vision Media Presentation, thevisionmedia, US and NATO attacks Leave a commentThe Vision Media brings for you The First Comprehensive Documentary on the deadly war by US and NATO forces against Pakistan. This is the first part of the documentary prepared for the presentation of the case of Pakistan and on behalf of millions of innocents who are being victimized by the deadly, ruthless and heartless Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) in Waziristan Area of Pakistan in addition to the attacks by the western forces on Pakistan Army. Pakistan Army is has taken the greatest damage, causalities and financial loss for the US’s war against the terrorists. In return, it is subject to the most deadly and treacherous attacks on it by its ‘allies’ including US armed forces and NATO army.
The Year of the Drones – An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2011
Posted: November 28, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, crime against humanities, Drone, drone killing, genocide, indiscriminate killing, mass killing, mass murder Leave a commentView all U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan in a larger map. Note:strikes reported after November 19, 2010 appear on page 2 of theGoogle map.
Created by(chaudry) Created on (26-5-2011)
An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2011
2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007
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This research was last updated on May 24, 2011. For a full analysis of the repercussions and results of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan, please click here for “The Year of the Drone,” by Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, February 24, 2010 or click here for “The Hidden War,” December 21, 2010.
2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007
The research on these pages, which we have created in a good faith effort to be as transparent as possible with our sources and analysis and will be updated regularly, draws only on accounts from reliable media organizations with deep reporting capabilities in Pakistan, including the New York Times, Washington Post, and Wall Street Journal, accounts by major news services and networks—the Associated Press, Reuters, Agence France-Presse, CNN, and the BBC—and reports in the leading English-language newspapers in Pakistan—the Daily Times, Dawn, the Express Tribune, and the News—as well as those from Geo TV, the largest independent Pakistani television network.
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Our study shows that the 244 reported drone strikes in northwest Pakistan, including 31 in 2011, from 2004 to the present have killed approximately between 1,483 and 2,364 individuals, of whom around 1,190 to 1,893 were described as militants in reliable press accounts. Thus, the true non-militant fatality rate since 2004 according to our analysis is approximately 20 percent. In 2010, it was more like five percent.*
We have also constructed a map, based on the same reliable press accounts and publicly available maps, of the estimated location of each drone strike. Click each pin in the online version to see the details of a reported strike. And while we are not professional cartographers, and Google Maps is at times incomplete or imperfect, this map gives our best approximations of the locations and details of each reported drone strike since 2004.
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This study carries a Creative Commons license, which permits re-use of New America content when proper attribution is provided. Please click here for conditions of use, and when citing please attribute to Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann’s drones database at the New America Foundation.
Estimated Total Deaths from U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004 – 2011
| Deaths (low) | Deaths (high)
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| 2011* | 154 | 235 | |
| 2010 | 607 | 993 | |
| 2009 | 369 | 725 | |
| 2008 | 273 | 313 | |
| 2004-2007 | 89 | 112 | |
| Total | 1492 | 2,378 |
Estimated Militant Deaths from U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan 2004 – 2011
| Deaths (low) | Deaths (high) | |
| 2011* | 138 | 199 |
| 2010 | 581 | 939 |
| 2009 | 266 | 502 |
| 2008 | 133 | 164 |
| 2004-2007 | 81 | 103 |
| Total | 1,199 | 1,907 |
*Through May 24, 2011
Estimated Militant Leader Deaths from US Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2011
| 2011 | 1 |
| 2010 | 12 |
| 2009 | 7 |
| 2008 | 10 |
| 2004-2007 | 3 |
| Total | 33 |
*Through May 24, 2011. Included in estimated militants and estimated totals, above.
Militant leaders killed
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2011
- February 20, 2011: Abu Zaid al-Iraqi, managed al-Qaeda’s finances in Pakistan (AP)
2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2004-2007
Strikes by Target
| Target | 2004-2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Total |
| Taliban | 6 | 11 | 27 | 42 | 9 | 95 |
| Baitullah Mehsud (not Taliban generally) | 0 | 1 | 16 | n/a | n/a | 17 |
| Al Qaeda | 5 | 10 | 9** | 8 | 2 | 34 |
| Haqqani | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 24 |
| Unclear/Other | 0 | 13 | 4 | 68 | 21 | 106 |
*Count is more than the number of strikes in some cases because some targets fell into multiple categories.
In cases where a media report described a specific target such as Baitullah Mehsud or the Haqqani network, the target is counted as such. If a target was both al Qaeda and Taliban commanders, it is counted once under each category. Strikes against Baitullah Mehsud are not included in the overall Taliban count. We assume that strikes which kill a leader in a given group were targeted at that group.
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2011
31. May 23, 201
Location: Machikhel, Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, CNN, BBC, Reuters, AFP/ET, The News
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Machikhel, Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, CNN, BBC, Reuters, AFP/ET, The News
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (UNCLEAR)
30. May 20, 2011
Location: Tappi area, 10km east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Reuters, AP, CNN, ET, AFP
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
Location: Tappi area, 10km east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Reuters, AP, CNN, ET, AFP
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
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29. May 16, 2011
Location: Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, AFP, Dawn, Reuters
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
Location: Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, AFP, Dawn, Reuters
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
28. May 16, 2011
Location: Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, AFP, Dawn, Reuters
Assumed target: Compound (UNCLEAR)
Location: Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AP, AFP, Dawn, Reuters
Assumed target: Compound (UNCLEAR)
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27. May 13, 2011
Location: Doga Madakhel, 40km west of Miram Shah, in Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, CNN, Reuters, AJE
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
Location: Doga Madakhel, 40km west of Miram Shah, in Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, CNN, Reuters, AJE
Assumed target: Vehicle (UNCLEAR)
26. May 12, 2011
Location: Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, The News, Reuters, AFP, CNN, BBC
Assumed target: Pick-up van (UNCLEAR)
Location: Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, The News, Reuters, AFP, CNN, BBC
Assumed target: Pick-up van (UNCLEAR)
25. May 10, 2011
Location: Baghar area, near Angoor Adda, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5 (Arabs)
Others killed: Unknown
Source: ET, AP, AFP, CNN
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Baghar area, near Angoor Adda, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5 (Arabs)
Others killed: Unknown
Source: ET, AP, AFP, CNN
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
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24. May 6, 2011
Location: Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 8-14
Others killed: 0-1
Source: AFP, AP, ET/Reuters, AP, Geo, Post, CNN, The News, Reuters
Assumed target: Compound used by militants (QAEDA)
Location: Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 8-14
Others killed: 0-1
Source: AFP, AP, ET/Reuters, AP, Geo, Post, CNN, The News, Reuters
Assumed target: Compound used by militants (QAEDA)
MAY 2, 2011: OSAMA BIN LADEN KILLED
23. April 22, 2011
Location: Spinwam, Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 17-20
Others killed: 3-9
Source: Reuters, AP, WSJ, CNN, BBC, Geo, NYT
Assumed target: Compound used by Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
Location: Spinwam, Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 17-20
Others killed: 3-9
Source: Reuters, AP, WSJ, CNN, BBC, Geo, NYT
Assumed target: Compound used by Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
22. April 13, 2011
Location: Angoor Adda, Bhangar area, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, Reuters, CNN, BBC, NYT, Pajhwok
Assumed target: Vehicle and motorcycle used by militants (TALIBAN/HAQQANI)
Location: Angoor Adda, Bhangar area, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, Reuters, CNN, BBC, NYT, Pajhwok
Assumed target: Vehicle and motorcycle used by militants (TALIBAN/HAQQANI)
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21. March 17, 2011
Location: Datta Khel, 15 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 11-12
Others killed: 13-24
Source: AJE, AP, CNN, BBC, Reuters, The News, Geo, ET, Reuters, FP, AP, FP, AP
Assumed target: Meeting of fighters planning attacks in Afghanistan; affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN) OR a meeting of local elders discussing a land dispute (UNCLEAR).
Note: U.S. officials claim all those killed were militants, while Pakistani officials claim all were civilians. Up to 45 total were reported killed by different sources.
Location: Datta Khel, 15 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 11-12
Others killed: 13-24
Source: AJE, AP, CNN, BBC, Reuters, The News, Geo, ET, Reuters, FP, AP, FP, AP
Assumed target: Meeting of fighters planning attacks in Afghanistan; affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN) OR a meeting of local elders discussing a land dispute (UNCLEAR).
Note: U.S. officials claim all those killed were militants, while Pakistani officials claim all were civilians. Up to 45 total were reported killed by different sources.
20. March 16, 2011
Location: Datta Khel town, 15 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Dawn, BBC, AP
Assumed target: Compound used by militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Datta Khel town, 15 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Dawn, BBC, AP
Assumed target: Compound used by militants (UNCLEAR)
19. March 14, 2011
Location: Malik Jashdar, 6 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, BBC, ET, AP
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Malik Jashdar, 6 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, BBC, ET, AP
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
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18. March 13, 2011
Location: Spalga village, 15km NE of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 1
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Compound used by TTP commander Rahimullah (TALIBAN)
Location: Spalga village, 15km NE of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 1
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Compound used by TTP commander Rahimullah (TALIBAN)
17. March 13, 2011
Location: Spalga village, 15km NE of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Compound used by TTP commander Rahimullah (TALIBAN)
Location: Spalga village, 15km NE of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Compound used by TTP commander Rahimullah (TALIBAN)
16. March 13, 2011
Location: Azam Warsak, 12 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 0-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, ET
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Azam Warsak, 12 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 0-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, AFP, ET
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
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15. March 11, 2011
Location: Spinwam village, Khaisor, 30 miles north of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 2-3
Others killed: 0-2
Source: Dawn, AP, AFP, Dawn
Assumed target: Militants collecting bodies from the earlier drone strike (UNCLEAR)
Location: Spinwam village, Khaisor, 30 miles north of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 2-3
Others killed: 0-2
Source: Dawn, AP, AFP, Dawn
Assumed target: Militants collecting bodies from the earlier drone strike (UNCLEAR)
14. March 11, 2011
Location: Spinwam village, Khaisor, 30 miles north of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Dawn, AP, AFP, Dawn
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Spinwam village, Khaisor, 30 miles north of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Dawn, AP, AFP, Dawn
Assumed target: Vehicle carrying militants (UNCLEAR)
13. March 8, 2011
Location: Landidog, 12 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP/AFP, BBC, Daily Times
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
Location: Landidog, 12 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP/AFP, BBC, Daily Times
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
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12. February 24, 2011
Location: Mohammed Khel, in Danday Darpa Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, BBC, CNN, AFP, ET/Reuters
Assumed target: Car carrying Turkmen militants and house used by Taliban fighters (TALIBAN)
Location: Mohammed Khel, in Danday Darpa Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, BBC, CNN, AFP, ET/Reuters
Assumed target: Car carrying Turkmen militants and house used by Taliban fighters (TALIBAN)
11. February 21, 2011
Location: Spalga village, 12 miles south of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 5-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AFP, AP, BBC, The News, Geo/AFP
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
Location: Spalga village, 12 miles south of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 5-8
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AFP, AP, BBC, The News, Geo/AFP
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
10. February 20, 2011
Location: Kaza Panga village, 10 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: 1 (Abu Zaid al-Iraqi, managed al-Qaeda’s finances in Pakistan)
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AFP, Geo/AFP, AJE, BBC, CNN, AP, Reuters
Assumed target: House used by militants (QAEDA)
Location: Kaza Panga village, 10 miles west of Wana, South Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: 1 (Abu Zaid al-Iraqi, managed al-Qaeda’s finances in Pakistan)
Militants killed: 4-7
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AFP, Geo/AFP, AJE, BBC, CNN, AP, Reuters
Assumed target: House used by militants (QAEDA)
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9. January 23, 2011
Location: Mando Khel, 60km south of Miram Shah near Razmak, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: Suspected militant compound (UNCLEAR)
Location: Mando Khel, 60km south of Miram Shah near Razmak, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: Suspected militant compound (UNCLEAR)
8. January 23, 2011
Location: Doga Mada Khel, near Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 2-3
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: Motorcycle in the same town as #7 (UNCLEAR)
Location: Doga Mada Khel, near Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 2-3
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: Motorcycle in the same town as #7 (UNCLEAR)
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7. January 23, 2011
Location: Doga Mada Khel, near Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: House and vehicle (UNCLEAR)
Location: Doga Mada Khel, near Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: CNN, AFP, Geo, AP, AFP, AJE
Assumed target: House and vehicle (UNCLEAR)
6. January 18, 2011
Location: Asar village, 25 miles west of Miram Shah, Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: The News/AFP, AFP, PTI, AP
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
Location: Asar village, 25 miles west of Miram Shah, Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: The News/AFP, AFP, PTI, AP
Assumed target: Militant compound (UNCLEAR)
5. January 12, 2011
Location: Haiderkhel village, 15 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: BBC, AFP, CNN, Pajhwok, Geo/AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Militant compound linked to Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
Location: Haiderkhel village, 15 miles east of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 3-5
Others killed: Unknown
Source: BBC, AFP, CNN, Pajhwok, Geo/AFP, WSJ
Assumed target: Militant compound linked to Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
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4. January 7, 2011
Location: Ghar Laley, 22 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, Geo/AFP, ET, BBC, CNN
Assumed target: House and vehicle (UNCLEAR)
Location: Ghar Laley, 22 miles west of Miram Shah, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-6
Others killed: Unknown
Source: AP, AFP, Geo/AFP, ET, BBC, CNN
Assumed target: House and vehicle (UNCLEAR)
3. January 1, 2011
Location: Boya village, in Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Geo, AP, Reuters, AFP/ET, BBC, CNN, LAT, AFP
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
Location: Boya village, in Datta Khel, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4
Others killed: Unknown
Source: Geo, AP, Reuters, AFP/ET, BBC, CNN, LAT, AFP
Assumed target: Vehicle used by militants (UNCLEAR)
2. January 1, 2011
Location: Ghoresti, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-5
Others killed: Unclear
Source: Geo, AP, Reuters, AFP/ET, BBC, CNN, LAT, AFP
Assumed target: Retrieving bodies (TALIBAN)
Location: Ghoresti, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 4-5
Others killed: Unclear
Source: Geo, AP, Reuters, AFP/ET, BBC, CNN, LAT, AFP
Assumed target: Retrieving bodies (TALIBAN)
For More Information Please Visit:
1. January 1, 2011
Location: Mandi Khel, near Mir Ali, North Waziristan
Militant leaders killed: Unknown
Militants killed: 7-9
Others killed: Unclear
Assumed target: Vehicle and militant compound affiliated with Hafiz Gul Bahadur (TALIBAN)
For More Information Please Visit:
… آپریشن بلیو تلسی جس کی منصوبہ بندی میں پندرہ سال اور تیاری میں دس سال کا عرصہ لگا اس وقت شروع ہوچکا ہے
Posted: November 23, 2011 Filed under: Ahmed Sajjad Hashemy, منصوبہ بندی میں پندرہ سال اور تیاری میں دس سال کا عرصہ لگا اس وقت شروع ہوچکا ہے Leave a comment
آپریشن بلیو تلسی جس کی منصوبہ بندی میں پندرہ سال اور تیاری میں دس سال کا عرصہ لگا اس وقت شروع ہوچکا ہے۔
جولائی 2001ء میں جینز انفارمیشن گروپ نے رپورٹ فراہم کی کہ ”را” اور ”موساد” پاکستان میں اہم مذہبی اور فوجی شخصیات، جرنلسٹ، ججوں، وکلاء اور بیورو کریٹس کو خریدنے اور نشانہ بنانے کے لئے مل جل کر کام کررہی ہیں۔ اسرائیلی ائرفورس کے چیف نے مارچ 1995ء میں بھارت کا دورہ کیا اور اس کے وفد میں ”موساد” کے اعلیٰ افسران بھی شامل تھے۔ اس دورے کے دوران ایک میٹنگ میں پاکستان کا ایٹمی پروگرام بطور خاص زیر بحث آیا۔ اگلے سال جون 1996ء میں بھارتی ایٹمی اور میزائل پروگرام کے ہیڈ ”عبدالکلام” کی قیادت میں ایک وفد خفیہ دورے پر اسرائیل گیا۔ اگرچہ یہ دورہ خفیہ تھا لیکن اس کی اتنی تشہیر کی گئی کہ دورے سے قبل ہی سب کو اس کے بارے میں معلوم ہوگیا۔ خفیہ دورے کی تشہیر اور انتہائی اعلیٰ افسران کے وفد میں موجود ہونے کے باعث دورہ کامیاب رہا اور سب نے دورے کے مقاصد میں کامیابی کی طرف توجہ مبذول کئے رکھی چونکہ سبھی کا دھیان اس خفیہ دورے کے مقاصد پر تھا اس لئے ڈیفنس ریسرچ اینڈ ڈویلپمنٹ آرگنائزیشن کے منیجر ‘دالوک تیواڑی” کی جانب کسی کا دھیان ہی نہیں گیا جو وفد کا ایک اہم رکن تھا لیکن کسی بھی ٹاپ سیکرٹ میٹنگ میں موجود نہیں تھا چونکہ سبھی کی نظریں عبدالکلام کے خفیہ دورے پر لگی تھیں اس لئے الوک تیواڑی کی گمشدگی کو محسوس نہ کیا گیا۔ بھارت واپسی کے محض چند روز بعد ہی جولائی 1996ء میں تیواڑی ایک بار پھر بھارتی ائر چیف مارشل ایس کے سرین کے ہمراہ اسرائیل روانہ ہوگیا۔ درحقیقت یہ تیواڑی کا اسرائیل کا تیسرا دورہ تھا۔ اس سے قبل وہ اپریل 1996ء میں بھارت کے پہلے ڈیفنس اتاشی کے ہمراہ اسرائیل جاچکا تھا۔
بھارتی حکومت نے ایٹمی دھماکے کرنے کا فیصلہ اس لئے کیا تھا کہ پاکستان اگر ایٹمی قوت کا مالک بن چکا ہے تو وہ جوابی دھماکہ کرکے اپنی ایٹمی قوت کا ثبوت فراہم کرے لیکن جب بھارتی ایٹمی دھماکوں کے دو ہفتے بعد تک پاکستان کی جانب سے ایسا کوئی ردعمل سامنے نہ آیا تو پاکستان کی ایٹمی صلاحیت کے بارے میں شکوک و شبہات بڑھنے لگے اور بھارت نے سوچا کہ پاکستان کے پاس ایٹمی صلاحیت موجود تو نہیں ہے لیکن جلد ہی وہ اسے حاصل کرلے گا۔ اس لئے بھارت نے پاکستان کی ایٹمی تنصیبات کو اسرائیل کے ساتھ مل کر تباہ کرنے کی تیاری جونہی مکمل کی تو بلی تھیلے سے باہر آ گئی۔
بھارتی چیف آف آرمی سٹاف کے دورہ اسرائیل سے جو مارچ 1998ء میں کیا گیا تھا بھارت اور اسرائیل کی مشترکہ کوشش کے پیچھے موجود اصل حقائق تو کسی حد تک غیر واضح ہیں لیکن ان کوششوں نے پاکستان کو واضح طور پر ایٹمی طاقت ثابت کردیا۔ پاکستان کے ایٹمی تجربات پوری دنیا کے لئے ایک بجلی کا جھٹکا ثابت ہوئے۔ شروع میں تو بہت سے لوگوں کو یہ یقین ہی نہیں آرہا تھا کہ پاکستان کے پاس ایٹمی طاقت ہے اور وہ اسے ظاہر بھی کرسکتا ہے۔ پاکستان کی ایٹمی قوت کو تباہ کرنے میں سب سے دلچسپی لینے والے ممالک بھارت اور اسرائیل کے لئے یہ ایک ایسا جھٹکا تھا جس نے ان کی تمام کوششوں پر پانی پھیر دیا۔ ایک سال بعد بھارت کا نیشنل سیکیورٹی ایڈوائزر برجیش میشرا ستمبر 1999ء میں احد باراک سے ملنے اسرائیل پہنچا تو ایک جانا پہچانا چہرہ بھی اس کے ساتھ تھا یعنی الوک تیواڑی۔ اگلے ایک برس کے دوران الوک تیواڑی اور ایک دوسرے سیکیورٹی ایڈوائزر نے مل جل کر اپنی تحقیقات پر مبنی ایک ڈاکومنٹ تیار کرلیا۔ جون 2000ء میں ایل کے ایڈوانی نے اسرائیل کا دورہ کیا جس میں موساد اور شابھک نے ”را” کے ساتھ مل کر تخریبی تعاون کے معاملات طے کئے جن کے نتیجے میں اسرائیل کو اپنی کارروائیوں کے لئے بھارت کی سرزمین استعمال کرنے کی اجازت مل گئی۔ ایل کے ایڈوانی نے پاکستان کے نیو کلیئر پروگرام کا مسئلہ بھی اٹھایا اور دونوں ممالک کے درمیان پاکستان کی ایٹمی تنصیبات پر مشترکہ حملے کے بارے میں بھی بات چیت کی۔ دورے کے دوران الوک تیواڑی کی رپورٹ بھی زیر بحث آئی۔ جولائی 2000ء میں بھاری تعداد میں اسرائیلی ایجنٹوں نے مقبوضہ جموں و کشمیر میں اپنا ٹھکانہ بنا لیا۔ ایسی رپورٹیں سامنے آئیں جن میں 2000ء کے اواخر تک اسرائیل ٹاپ ایجنٹوں کے بھارت کے کئی دوروں اور ان کے دوران دیگر معاملات کے علاوہ پاکستان کے ایٹمی اثاثوں اور کشمیر جیسے مسائل پر آپس میں بات چیت کی گئی۔ ان میٹنگز کے دوران الوک تیواڑی کی تیار کردہ رپورٹ ایجنڈے کا اہم حصہ تھی جسے اسرائیل نے چند ضروری تبدیلیوں کے بعد قبول کرلیا تھا۔ سال کے آخری دورے کے دوران دونوں ممالک کے جاسوسی ادارے ایک موٹی فائل میں موجود ایک اہم منصوبے پر متفق ہوگئے جس کے باہر ”آپریشن بلیو تلسی” لکھا ہوا تھا۔ اس فائل کے اندر کیا لکھا تھا یہ تو معلوم نہیں لیکن 2001ء کے اوائل میں ہونے والے واقعات سے فائل کے اندر موجود تحریر کا اندازہ ہوگیا۔
آپریشن میگا بلیو تلسی کی تیاریوں کا آغاز 2001ء میں شروع کردیا گیا تھا۔ 2001ء کے وسط تک ”را” اور ”موساد” کے باہمی تعاون پر تشویش کا اظہار کیا جانے لگا اور جولائی 2001ء میں جین انفارمیشن گروپ نے اپنی رپورٹ میں کہا کہ ”را” اور ”موساد” مل جل کر پاکستان میں حالات کو خراب کرنے پر تلے ہوئے ہیں اور مذہبی رہنمائ، صحافی، فوجی افسران، وکیل اور بیورو کریٹس کو ٹارگٹ کیا جارہا ہے۔ مزید یہ کہ ریلوے سٹیشنوں، بس اسٹینڈ، سینمائوں، ہوٹلوں اور مختلف فرقوں کی مساجد میں بم دھماکوں کی منصوبہ بندی کی جاچکی ہے تاکہ فرقہ واریت کی آگ بھڑکائی جاسکے۔ اسی اثناء میں بلوچستان لبریشن آرمی (بی ایل اے ) کے مردہ ڈھانچے میں پھر سے جان پڑ گئی اور بلاج مری جو کہ ماسکو سے تعلیم یافتہ تھا اس نے خود کو بی ایل اے کا لیڈر قرار دے ڈالا۔ چند ہفتوں کے دوران ہی پورے بلوچستان میں کئی ٹریننگ کیمپ قائم ہوگئے اور ہر کیمپ میں سو افراد کی تربیت کا انتظام موجود تھا۔ افغانستان میں موجود ”را، موساد اور سی آئی اے” کے ایجنٹ بلوچستان پہنچنا شروع ہوگئے۔ 2001ء کے وسط میں حاصل شدہ رپورٹوں میں کہا گیا تھا کہ موساد کی سپیشل آپریشنز ڈویژن جسے Metsada کے نام سے بھی جانا جاتا ہے اور جو قتل و خون اور سبوتاژ کی ماہر سمجھی جاتی ہے۔ ”را” کے ایجنٹوں کو تربیت فراہم کررہی ہے اور بھارتی مقبوضہ کشمیر میں ”را” اور ”موساد” مل کر آپریشنز کررہی ہیں۔ جولائی 2001ء میں ”را” نے افغانستان میں موجود بھارتی قونصلیٹس کے لئے اپنے بجٹ میں دس گنا اضافہ کردیا۔ 2004ء کے وسط تک حکومت کے پاس مکمل ثبوت موجود تھے کہ بی ایل اے اور چند بلوچ رہنماء حکومت کے خلاف سازش کررہے تھے اور انہیں بیرونی حمایت حاصل تھی۔ 13 اگست 2004ء کو بلوچستان کے اس وقت کے وزیر اعلیٰ جام محمد یوسف نے بیان دیا کیا کہ ”را” نے بلوچستان کے طول و عرض میں 40 دہشت گردی کی تربیت کے کیمپ قائم کررکھے ہیں۔ اس وقت جب اندرون خانہ یہ سازش ہورہی تھی تو ہر طرف دہشت گردوں کے ساتھ ”پُرامن مذاکرات” کی بات کی جارہی تھی۔ جان محمد جمالی جیسے لوگ اس وقت میڈیا کی جانب سے مذاق کا نشانہ بنانے جارہے تھے کیونکہ جان محمد جمالی نے یہ کہنے کی جرأت کی تھی کہ غیر ملکی ایجنٹ بلوچستان میں کارروائیوں میں مصروف ہیں۔ بدقسمتی سے پاکستانی میڈیا نے اس بات کو خاص اہمیت نہیں دی۔ بہرحال کچھ بھی ہوتا بہت دیر ہوچکی تھی۔ آپریشن بلیو تلسی کی تیاریاں مکمل ہوچکی تھیں اور حکومت پاکستان نے انہونی کو روکنے کے تمام مواقع ضائع کردیئے تھے۔ یکم جنوری 2005ء کو آپریشن بلو تلسی کا آغاز ہوا۔ مقامی ایجنٹوں نے اشارہ ملتے ہی آپریشن کا آغاز کردیا اور 2 جنوری 2005ء کو سوئی میں ایک خاتون ڈاکٹر کو اجتماعی درندگی کا نشانہ بنایا گیا۔ جیسا کہ توقع تھی واقعہ شہ سرخیوں میں اخباروں کی زینت بنا اور ہمیشہ کی طرح ملزمان گرفتار نہ ہوسکے۔ اس کے بعد سات جنوری 2005ء کو سوئی میں گیس سپلائی لائن پر سینکڑوں چھوٹے راکٹ فائر کئے گئے اور پورے ملک کو گیس کی فراہمی ایک ہفتہ تک معطل رہی۔ 2005ء دہشت گردوں کے حوالے سے ایک مصروف سال ثابت ہوا جو پاکستانی بلوچ شہریوں میں بے چینی پھیلاتا رہا اور اس کا اختتام مشرف پر قاتلانہ حملے سے ہوا۔ دسمبر 2005ء میں پرویز مشرف راکٹ حملے میں بال بال بچا اور پھر فرنٹیئر کور کے انسپکٹر جنرل پر بھی قاتلانہ حملہ ہوا۔ بھارتی وزارت خارجہ کے ترجمان نیوتیج سرنا نے یہ بیان دیکر پاکستان کے معاملات میں کھلی مداخلت کی اور اپنا خبث باطن بھی ظاہر کردیا کہ ” بھارت کی حکومت کو بلوچستان میں ہونے والے تشدد اور فوجی آپریشن پر تشویش ہے جس میں حکومت پاکستان نے گن شپ ہیلی کاپٹر اور لڑاکا جیٹ استعمال کئے۔ ہمیں امید ہے کہ حکومت پاکستان صورتحال کی نزاکت کو سمجھتے ہوئے پُرامن مذاکرات کی راہ اپنائے گی تاکہ بلوچستان کے عوام کے دکھوں کا مداوا ہوسکے”۔ ان دو قاتلانہ حملوں میں ناکامی کے بعد حکومت بھارت کو اندازہ ہو گیا تھا کہ پاکستانی فوج کا یقینی نشانہ بھارت کے بلوچستان میں موجود اثاثے و تنصیبات یعنی (دہشت گردوں کے تربیتی کیمپ) ہونگے جو کہ اس اپنے مقصد کے حصول تک محفوظ رکھنا تھے۔
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